Will Iranian Cunning Save Persia from a Devastating Strike?

USPA NEWS - Introduction

Iranian negotiators are known for their strategic cunning, stalling tactics, and masterful use of negotiations as a tool to achieve political and security objectives. Whether in the nuclear file, regional and international relations, or managing internal crises, Tehran has relied on these tactics to maintain its position.
However, with Iran losing its forward defense lines in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, its deterrent arms in Gaza and Yemen being weakened, and U.S. and British fleets amassing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf, Iranian diplomats are now compelled to seek a difficult and dangerous negotiation path—one that preserves Iran’s regional prestige while facing direct U.S. and Israeli threats.

The Iranian negotiation strategy is characterized by the following features:

1. Long-Term Negotiation Strategy
Iran views negotiations as an extended process rather than a means for immediate resolution. This allows it to exhaust its adversaries and buy time to strengthen its bargaining position. The protracted nuclear negotiations serve as a prime example, enabling Iran to advance its nuclear program despite sanctions and external pressures.

2. Leveraging Crises for Gains
Rather than seeing crises as setbacks, Iran uses them as opportunities to negotiate from a position of strength. The greater the pressure, the more Tehran seeks to extract concessions in return for calculated compromises. This approach is evident in its dealings with Western sanctions and its strategic use of influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

3. Exploiting Global Divisions
Iran skillfully takes advantage of geopolitical rifts, such as those between the U.S., China, and Russia, or between Europe and Washington. This maneuvering grants Tehran a broader margin for negotiation, securing gains without making significant concessions.

4. Balancing Diplomacy with Force
Tehran employs a “carrot and stick” policy, negotiating with one hand while supporting its regional proxies with the other. Despite suffering setbacks due to U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran continues to signal its ability to activate sleeper cells and maintain influence through Hezbollah remnants in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria. This dual strategy strengthens its leverage at the negotiation table.

5. Utilizing Internal and External Pressures Iran capitalizes on both domestic (economic crises, protests) and external (sanctions, diplomatic isolation) pressures to justify certain concessions to its internal audience while convincing the West to ease sanctions in exchange for limited compromises.

Where Are Iranian Negotiations Headed?

• Nuclear Program: Despite Trump’s repeated threats to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, Tehran is expected to prolong negotiations to extract concessions while maintaining its strategic capabilities.
• Regional Influence: While publicly distancing itself from its proxies, Iran will continue covert support while offering only superficial compromises.
• Relations with Major Powers: Iran will deepen its ties with Russia, China, and North Korea to counter Western pressure, despite these alliances' inherent weaknesses.

Iran does not negotiate for solutions but rather to manage conflicts at the lowest cost and highest gain.

If history repeats itself and Trump adopts a hardline approach, Iran’s negotiation strategy over the next two months will rely on:

1. Buying Time and Stalling
Iran will avoid direct negotiations, instead using delay tactics such as ambiguous responses, demands for clarifications, and additional guarantees. This period will be used to strengthen its military and political stance while securing backing from allies like Russia and China.

2. Calculated Escalation Without Crossing Red Lines
• Iran may conduct provocative actions like increasing uranium enrichment, military drills, or missile tests without triggering open conflict.
• Despite recent losses, Tehran may escalate proxy activities—supporting the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq, and Hamas in Palestine—to pressure U.S. interests while avoiding full-scale war.
• Iran might also resort to cyberattacks on U.S. or Israeli infrastructure as a low-risk pressure tactic.

3. Exploiting U.S. Domestic Divisions
• Iran is aware of Trump’s internal opposition within Congress and Washington’s deep-state institutions. Tehran may delay its response, betting on mounting domestic pressure against Trump’s hardline stance.
• Iran could also leverage European allies (France, Germany) to argue that escalating tensions with Tehran could destabilize the region and disrupt global energy markets.

4. Superficial Concessions for Substantial Gains
• Iran may offer symbolic compromises, such as allowing expanded international inspections or limiting specific nuclear activities. However, it will not fully relinquish its nuclear or missile programs unless faced with a severe existential threat.
• In return, Tehran will push for economic relief, particularly in oil exports and international banking access.

5. Engaging in Backchannel Diplomacy
• Iran is likely to explore unofficial negotiations through mediators like Oman, Qatar, or the UAE to gauge U.S. intentions and the extent of possible concessions.
• It may also use its partnerships with Russia and China to warn Washington against complete isolation, arguing that pushing Iran too far could drive it deeper into the anti-Western bloc.

Potential Outcome?

If Trump maintains military and economic pressure, Iran may eventually engage in negotiations—but only to dismantle pressures in stages while preserving its ability to maneuver in the future. Tehran understands that Trump avoids prolonged wars and is unlikely to open a direct front against Iran.
Iran excels in playing the long game and will not enter direct negotiations with Trump until exhausting all other options and ensuring minimum acceptable gains.
Conclusion: Iranian Media Tactics and the Tug-of-War Strategy
Iran is fully aware that a direct military confrontation with the U.S., Britain, or Israel would be extremely costly—militarily, economically, and politically.

Instead, it relies on an indirect deterrence strategy that includes:

• Media Warfare: Iran effectively uses state and allied media networks to shape public perceptions and craft narratives about its capabilities and strategic intentions.

Recent statements highlight this approach:

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei initially opposed negotiations with the U.S., but hours later, Iran’s UN mission released a statement hinting at possible talks over the nuclear program. Meanwhile, the IAEA reported that Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is sufficient for six nuclear bombs if enriched to 90%. Tehran, however, denies seeking nuclear weapons.
• Khamenei warned against "hostile and deceptive diplomacy" while simultaneously stating: “If you know your counterpart, you can negotiate while knowing what to do.”
• Analysts argue that Khamenei deliberately speaks in ambiguous terms, allowing Iran’s civilian leadership to take responsibility for any diplomatic shifts.
• His main strategy is buying time—managing the situation to avoid direct confrontation with Trump while capitalizing on internal U.S. and global weaknesses.
Iran’s Measures to Prevent Domestic Uprising
• Abolishing the Morality Police, mirroring Saudi Arabia’s decision to dismantle the religious police, to defuse internal protests.
• Publicly distancing from regional proxies while covertly continuing rapid and indirect support.

• Claiming to possess a secret superweapon—a strategic move that could later be used to negotiate away the nuclear and missile programs under extreme pressure.

Overall, Iran is focused on crisis management rather than direct escalation, seeking to avoid large-scale war while navigating economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

Final Question: Will Persian cunning succeed in avoiding a devastating strike?